Silver investors in India are staring at one of the sharpest corrections in the metal’s history. From a record Rs 3,84,632 per kg on January 29, domestic silver prices have crashed about 46 percent to around Rs 2.08 lakh per kg this week, wiping out most of the gains from the record-breaking rally earlier this year.
The fall has been just as brutal overseas. International silver, which peaked at $121 an ounce in January, was trading near $56.50 an ounce on Tuesday, a plunge of roughly 54 percent. The metal is down more than 13 percent in the past month alone, though it is still up about 17 percent over the past year.
The scale of the crash
The numbers tell a stark story. Between the January 29 peak and October 19, silver in India lost Rs 1,76,252 per kg. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver futures that had surged past Rs 4.2 lakh per kg in January were changing hands around Rs 2.1 to 2.19 lakh per kg in October.
The rout has caught even professional forecasters off guard. J.P. Morgan Global Research has cut its 2026 average silver price forecast from $84 to $70 per ounce, according to market reports. The gold-silver ratio has widened to around 72, a sign of silver’s particular sensitivity to the current macro backdrop.
Why silver is falling
Analysts point to a familiar set of pressures. Higher crude oil prices have fuelled inflation worries, global bond yields remain elevated, and the US dollar has strengthened. Together, these forces have convinced markets that central banks may keep monetary policy tight for longer, and silver pays no interest, so the opportunity cost of holding it keeps rising.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, summed it up in a note this week: silver’s weakness reflects its sensitivity to higher yields and a softer risk and growth backdrop, with the metal underperforming gold through the correction.
There is also a structural angle. Cooling industrial demand and projections of a market surplus in 2027 have weighed on sentiment, even as investors watch for any signal that the US Federal Reserve might pause or reverse its tightening path.
The festive-season twist
The timing is awkward for Indian buyers. Silver prices held steady at Rs 230 a gram, or Rs 2.30 lakh per kg, for four straight days through October 19, with the broader market closed for the Dussehra morning session. Trading in gold, silver and other commodities on the MCX resumed at 5 pm on Tuesday.
Bullion market data put MCX silver futures for December delivery at around Rs 2,09,825 per kg on Dussehra, while 24-karat gold in Mumbai was priced near Rs 1,47,340 per 10 grams. Dealers say the festive season usually provides a domestic floor for prices, even when global signals stay mixed.
What investors should watch next
The near-term direction now hinges on global cues. A decline in crude oil prices and dovish remarks from the US Federal Reserve chair had briefly lifted both the MCX silver price and spot silver by 0.5 to 1 percent on Monday, but physical prices barely moved. Markets are now bracing for the Fed’s next policy decision, with rate expectations swinging the metal almost daily.
Some prominent investors see opportunity in the wreckage. Market veteran Larry McDonald, whose firm sold into the January spike, is reportedly accumulating silver on the view that the metal could surge once the Fed signals it is done hiking. Whether that call proves early or inspired will become clearer in the coming weeks.
FAQs
How much has the silver price fallen in India?
Silver has fallen about 46 percent from its record high of Rs 3,84,632 per kg on January 29, 2026, to roughly Rs 2.08 lakh per kg this week.
Why is silver crashing now?
Higher oil prices, elevated bond yields, a stronger dollar and expectations that central banks will keep rates higher for longer have all weighed on the metal. Silver’s dual role as an investment and industrial metal has amplified the fall.
What is the silver price today?
Physical silver has been steady at Rs 230 a gram, or Rs 2.30 lakh per kg, while MCX futures are trading around Rs 2.1 lakh per kg. Prices vary across markets and cities.
Should investors buy the dip?
J.P. Morgan has trimmed its 2026 average forecast to $70 an ounce, and analysts advise watching US rate cues and the dollar before taking fresh positions. This is not investment advice; do your own research.
How does silver compare with gold?
Gold has held up far better, climbing more than 25 percent since last Dussehra, while silver is up about 45 percent over the same period despite the crash. The gold-silver ratio near 72 shows silver is currently the weaker of the two.
Silver’s 46 percent fall is a reminder that record rallies can reverse fast. With the Fed’s next move due soon, the metal’s next chapter could arrive within days. Stay with Informeia for daily price updates.
